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INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS -
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Morales' Triumph Has Washington Concerned

Posted in the database on Tuesday, December 27th, 2005 @ 18:19:34 MST (1699 views)
by Fiona Smith    The Guardian  

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His idea of formal wear is a brown leather jacket over an open-collared shirt. He is more at home leading street protests than wrangling deals in the corridors of power. His fiery speaking style leaves no room for prepared texts.

Evo Morales assumes Bolivia's presidency Jan. 22 as an extreme outsider to the country's politics, and as the first Indian president to rule an Andean nation that has always been governed by people of European descent.

His triumph is causing concern in Washington because of his promises to reverse the U.S.-backed campaign to end the growing of coca leaf, which is used to make cocaine, and to nationalize Bolivia's gas and oil reserves.

Counting Cuba's Fidel Castro among his allies, he also is a strong critic of free-market economics, and his election win was the latest in a string of leftist victories in South American nations disenchanted with ruling elites, endemic corruption and chronic poverty.

But the maverick style and street activism that helped the 46-year-old Morales connect with the country's poor Indian majority could prove a liability once he takes office.

``Evo Morales is an unpredictable politician,'' said Henry Oporto, a Bolivian political analyst. ``He is a person who can say unexpected things without weighing the consequences. Unfortunately, I don't think that is going to help him in his role as president.''

While results from congressional voting have not been announced, calculations by polling companies predict Morales' supporters will have a slim majority in one house and a near tie in their other. That means he won't have the two-thirds majority needed to pass major reforms and he will have to bargain with other parties to advance his radical agenda.

After his surprisingly easy victory in the Dec. 17 election - his 54 percent of the vote was the most popular support for a presidential candidate since democracy was restored two decades ago - Morales acknowledged being ``a little nervous.''

As president he will be faced with easing the social and political strife of a country that has seen more than 200 coups, countercoups and street rebellions in 180 years of independence.

Morales led Indian protests that ousted two presidents since 2003 using highway blockades and mass demonstrations. Now, thanks to the same angry groundswell, he will be on the inside, where any misstep could lead to the same kinds of street protests.

``It's still a big question how he's going to govern. Clearly if he wants to be a successful president, he doesn't want the same fate as some of his predecessors,'' said Michael Shifter, a Latin American expert at Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank in Washington.

How he will govern is anyone's guess. At this point, even whether he'll wear a tie to his inauguration remains a mystery. ``We don't know,'' said Alex Contreras, a close Morales adviser who heads the transition commission for protocol.

An Aymara Indian who grew up in poverty herding llamas and raising potatoes in Bolivia's arid highlands, Morales migrated as a youth to the coca-growing region of Chapare, where many poor farmers depend on small plots of the crop to provide a livelihood for their families.

With an 11th grade education, the coca farmer emerged as an astute organizer able to harness the anger of the poor and flex their political muscle in the streets.

Given the new president's strong electoral mandate, Bolivia's 8.5 million people are putting their hopes on his shoulders, and analysts say his opponents will be under pressure to deal with him. That also will leave him no one else to blame for failures.

``It is precisely the magnitude of his victory that places on him a much greater responsibility because he will practically have no opposition,'' said Cayetano Llobet, a Bolivian political analyst.

Morales, who promised during his campaign to be Washington's ``worst nightmare,'' already appears to be moderating his rhetoric.

In an interview with The Associated Press a week ago, he attributed his support to the desire of Bolivians to rebel against ``the empire,'' referring to the U.S. government. Later in the interview, however, he said he was open to dialogue with Washington and will try ``diplomacy with any country.''

On his Web site he once wrote, ``Thanks to coca, we've made it through the endless suffering caused by the white man's infamous war on drugs.'' But in recent statements he has said that while he supports the growing of coca for traditional uses - such as coca tea and medicinal purposes - he opposes cocaine trafficking.

Seeking to calm worries of some voters who didn't support him, he tapped a middle class intellectual to be his vice president, Alvaro Garcia Linera.

Morales also says he plans to strengthen relations with state-owned foreign energy companies as he seeks to assert ownership over Bolivia's large natural gas reserves. He has assured the business community his government will not confiscate energy company assets and will respect private property rights.

Still, Morales, who contends two decades of free-market policies have worsened life for Bolivia's poor, said Friday that his government will ``change the economic model.'' He offered no details, but Garcia Linera said Saturday that one aspect would be a new tax on the wealthy.

``A Bolivian political cycle has ended,'' said Llobet, the analyst. ``Another one is beginning. Exactly what will be the characteristics of this new political cycle, it's too early to say.''



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