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ECONOMICS -
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Storms set up oil companies to be gushers of profitability

Posted in the database on Wednesday, October 26th, 2005 @ 20:54:35 MST (1700 views)
by Steve Quinn    JournalStar.com  

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An oil platform ripped from its mooring in the Gulf of Mexico rests by the shore in Dauphin Island, Ala. Tuesday Aug. 30, 2005 after Hurricane Katrina passed through the area. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita wrecked some oil rigs, but paid off for the companies as prices for gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel soared.

Offshore oil platforms destroyed, refineries flooded, hurricanes Katrina and Rita certainly did their damage to energy companies.

But ultimately, they benefited as supplies tightened, prices for gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel soared. Exactly how much money was made will become clearer this week, as the industry begins to detail its third quarter performance, though analysts are expecting huge profits.

“They are just printing money right now,” said oil analyst Fadel Gheit at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York. “They are making so many trips to the bank because they can’t take all the money there at one time.”

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., BP PLC, ConocoPhillips Co., and Royal Dutch Shell PLC are expected to report a $9 billion, or 46 percent, increase in their combined third-quarter profits, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Thomson Financial. Last year, these five companies earned $19.6 billion in the July-September period.

The windfall isn’t limited to the integrated companies that produce, refine and sell energy at the retail level.

Independent oil and gas producers, as well as independent refiners, are also expected to report double-digit profit increases. And despite indications of slower growth in energy demand, the fourth quarter is already shaping up to be another good one for the industry — in part because production of oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico remains hindered.

The back-to-back hurricanes have already cost the region more than 11 percent of its annual oil production (about 60 million barrels so far) and almost 8 percent of its yearly natural gas production (about 305 billion cubic feet so far). More than 60 percent of the Gulf’s daily oil production and more than 50 percent of its daily natural gas production remain offline and some 2 million barrels of refining capacity remain out of service, according to the energy information service Platts.

But Gheit said that because most energy producers are covered by insurance for physical damage as well as business interruption, the negative impact on earnings is expected to be minimal.

The rising cost of energy is driving the industry’s profitability.

The spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude oil averaged $63.19 per barrel during the third quarter, or 44 percent higher than last year, according to U.S. Energy Department estimates. Natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $9.79 per 1,000 cubic feet, an increase of 74 percent from a year ago.

The companies also benefited from rising prices for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel after the hurricanes closed refineries and pipelines, which instantly constrained supplies.

The industry outlook was good even before the hurricanes. There is less room for error in the U.S. energy market these days because of reduced inventories and slow addition of new refining capacity — trends that have helped make refining much more profitable in recent years.

“We’re also selling record amounts of product and have been cutting costs through consolidations that further bolster the bottom lines,” said John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, a Washington-based trade group.

The staggeringly high profits — Exxon Mobil alone is expected to report an $8.9 billion third quarter profit — could put energy firms on the defensive for making such windfall profits from a disaster.

“It’s going to make people mad and it’s going to be a PR nightmare for these companies,” said Matthew R. Simmons, a Houston oil and gas investment banker.

The average retail price of gasoline nationwide briefly climbed above $3 a gallon in September. Lately, U.S. pump prices averaged $2.73 per gallon, or 69 cents higher than a year ago.

Although gasoline prices are beginning to taper off, homeowners are bracing for huge increases in the cost of natural gas and heating oil this winter.

This can be devastating to families with low or fixed incomes. It also has the attention of companies relying on natural gas as feedstock, raw materials used in chemical production. Chief executives from Dow Chemical Co. and International Paper Inc. recently spoke to analysts and legislators of their concerns over the rising natural gas costs.

While the overall economy has continued growing at a slower rate the transportation sector has been pinched.

The trucking industry has largely passed along the extra cost to its customers, but airlines have been less successful at doing so and are facing more dire financial consequences.

Meanwhile, watch for refiners and independent producers to weigh in with their own stout performances, say analysts.

Refiners such as Valero Energy Corp., Tesoro Corp. and Frontier Oil Corp., are expected to show huge profit gains. Analysts forecast these three companies earned a combined $1.37 billion for the third quarter, a 162 percent jump from last year, according to Thomson Financial.

Independent oil and natural gas producers — many of which had rigs and platforms in the storm’s path — will also deliver upbeat earnings, analysts said.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Apache Corp. and Devon Energy Corp. are expected to earn a combined $2.2 billion — a 65 percent boost from the third quarter of 2004, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial.



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