Untitled Document
Iran is bracing itself for an expected American-led air campaign. The
latter is in the advanced stages of military planning.
If there were to be war between the United States and Iran, the aerial campaign
would unleash fierce combat. It would be fully interactive on multiple fronts.
It would be a difficult battle involving active movement in the air from both
sides.
If war were to occur, the estimates of casualties envisaged by American and British
war planners would be high.
The expected wave of aerial attacks would resemble the tactics of the Israeli
air-war against Lebanon and would follow the same template, but on a larger scale
of execution.
The U.S. government and the Pentagon had an active role in graphing, both militarily
and politically, the template of confrontation in Lebanon. The Israeli siege
against Lebanon is in many regards a dress rehearsal for a planned attack on
Iran.1
A war against Iran is one that could also include military operations against
Syria. Multiple theatres would engulf many of the neighbors of Iran and Syria,
including Iraq and Israel/Palestine.
It must also be noted that an attack on Iran would be of a scale which would
dwarf the events in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Levant. A full blown war on Iran
would not only swallow up and incorporate these other conflicts. It would engulf
the entire Middle East and Central Asian region into an extensive confrontation.
An American-led air campaign against Iran, if it were to be implemented, would
be both similar and contrasting in its outline and intensity when compared to
earlier Anglo-American sponsored confrontations.
The war would start with intense bombardment and attacks on Iran's infrastructure,
but would be different in its scope of operations and intensity.
The characteristics of such a conflict would also be unpredictable because of
Iran's capabilities to respond. And in all likelihood, Iran would launch its
own potent attacks and extend the theatre of war by attacking U.S. and American-led
troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf.
The United States must also take into account the fact that Iran unlike Afghanistan,
Iraq, and Lebanon would be an opponent with the capability to resist the US
sponsored attacks on the ground, but also on the sea and in the air.
Unlike the former opponents faced by the United States and its partners, Iran
would be able to target the military launch pads used by the United States.
Iran would also be able to attack the U.S. supply and logistical hubs in the
Persian Gulf. American ships carrying supplies, troops, and warplanes would
be vulnerable to Iranian counter-attacks by way of Iranian missiles, warplanes,
and naval forces. It is no mere coincidence that Iran has been demonstrating
its military capabilities during the “Blow of Zolfaqar” war games
conducted in late August .2
Iranian Preparations for an American-led Air Campaign
The United States has continually threatened to attack Iran. These threats
are made under the pretext of halting the development of nuclear weapons in
Iran. The development of nuclear weapons by Iran is something the IAEA and its
inspectors have refuted as untrue3, but the United States insists
on continuing the charade as grounds for a military endgame with Iran.
The threat of an American-led attack against Iran with the heavy involvement
of Israel and Britain, amongst others, has primed Iran to prepare itself for
the anticipated moment. Over the years, this has led Iran to stride for self-sufficiency
in producing its own advanced military hardware and the development of asymmetrical
tactics to combat the United States.
Iranian defense planners have stated publicly that they have learned from the
cases of neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq. They are acutely aware of the U.S.
military’s heavy reliance on aerial strikes.
August 2006 saw the start of the virtually unprecedented events of the Blow
of Zolfaqar war games throughout Iran and its border provinces.4
These were similar to those conducted in April 2006.
The latter were also held during a period of tense confrontation between Iran
and the United States.
April 2006 was a period that could have resulted in military conflict between
both the United States and Iran. In April 2006, Iran had not only dismissed
the deadline set on its nuclear program, but it announced in defiance to the
United States that it had successfully enriched uranium for the first time.
Iran has taken the opportunity of the launching of both the April 2006 and Blow
of Zolfaqar war games to display its preparedness and capability to engage in
combat. Additionally, Iran has taken the occasion to fine tune its defenses
and mobilize its military apparatus. This exhibition of Iranian military might
is intended to deter America's intent to trigger another Middle Eastern war.
During the war games, the Iranian military has adjusted and modified its air
defense shield for maximum dexterity and efficiency in preparation, to stop
incoming missiles and invading aircraft..5 The war games have
been an opportunity for testing of Iranian capacity to wage war in the air
The Iranian military has also reported the testing of laser-guided weaponry,
advanced torpedoes, ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles, bullets that pierce
through bullet-proof vests, and electronic military hardware during the Blow
of Zolfaqar war games.6 Surface-to-surface and ocean-to-surface
missiles (submarine-to-surface missiles) in the Persian Gulf were also tested
in late-August 2006. These included missiles that are invisible to radar and
can use multiple warheads or carry multiple payloads to hit numerous targets
simultaneously.
Iran has also tested a “2,000 pound guided-bomb with long-range capabilities.”
This “2,000 pound bomb” is said to be a “special weapon developed
for penetrating military, economic and strategic targets located deep underground
or on the soil of the [impending] enemy.”7 In the case
of war, this weapon could be directed against Anglo-American military infrastructure
in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Persian Gulf. This guided bomb is an unmanned
aircraft carrying an explosive warhead. Following the execution of the Blow
of Zolfaqar war games, the Iranian Defense Minister stated that “Iran
now joins the few countries that possess guided missile technology,”8
Iran has also been manufacturing its own warplanes,9 submarines,
attack helicopters, tanks, torpedoes, and missiles. This includes remote-controlled
modified Maverick Missiles.10 Brigadier-General Amini, the
Deputy Commander of the Air Branch (Air Force) of the Regular Forces, has highlighted
that Iran has starting the development and manufacturing of new types of warplanes
besides the “Lighting fighter jets” that have been showcased in
Northern Iran.11
To discourage the United States in its plans to attack Iran, the Iranian military
has additionally been showcasing its abilities to dog fight in the air with
its fighter jets.12 Iranian fighter and bomber jets have been
progressively equipped with advanced software and hardware, developed in Iran
or by way of technology transfers from China, the Russian Federation, and the
republics of the former Soviet Union.
Iranian Commanders have also stated that Iran can track and hit warplanes
without using conventional radar. Iran has also been showcasing its signal jamming
devices and electronic military hardware, which it compares to NATO standards13.
Warnings to the United States To Stop Its War Plans
In Iran military commanders and state officials have also directly warned the
United States to halt its march towards war in the Middle East. An account of
a statement by Major-General Salehi, commander of the Iranian Army, sums up
the generic view of Iranian military officials and planners in the advent of
another Middle Eastern war initiated by the United States;
“Pointing to the joint maneuvers to be carried out by the U.S. army
[meaning military] and some other countries in the regional waters in the
coming days, the General said that the U.S. presence in the region [Middle
East] is considered as a threat to the security of the regional countries,
and further warned Washington that in case the U.S. dares to practice threats
[by actually attacking], it will then have to face a defeat as bad as the
one that the Zionists [Israel] had to sustain in Lebanon.”14
The Iranian Defence Minister has said “that his ministry is now equipping
the border units of the army with modern military tools and weapons in a bid
to increase their military capabilities,”15 and “that
any possible enemy invasion of Iran will receive a severe blow, adding that
failures of alien troops [meaning U.S., British, Coalition, and NATO forces]
in Iraq and Afghanistan have taught trans-regional powers extreme caution.”16
Other examples of public warnings by Iranian military commanders directed at
the United States and its partners include;
Acting Deputy Commander [Brigadier-General Ahmadi] of the Iranian Mobilized
Forces (Basij), noting the intensification of the psychological operations
and pressures against Iran, stressed that his troops are fully prepared to
encounter “any stupid act by the enemies.”17
(September 9, 2006)
[Brigadier-General Mohammad Hejazi] advised the U.S. to relinquish the idea
of invading Iran, stressing that as soon as the U.S. dares to make such a
big mistake, it will lose its forged reputation due to its [the U.S. military’s]
frequent and shocking defeats from the Iranian troops.18 (September
10, 2006)
[Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major-General Safavi has warned
that Revolutionary Guard] ground troops form a defensive force, but meantime
warned that in case any foreign threats are posed to Iran, [assured that the]
IRGC adopts an aggressive strategy and hits enemy targets in strategic depth.
He also described the southwestern province of Khuzestan as the most strategic
region of the country, saying, “Considering that Khuzestan is a border
province located at our sensitive borders with Iraq where British and American
occupying troops aim at devising cultural and security plots for Khuzestani
people through their intelligence organizations and bodies, IRGC and Basij
troops should maintain their preparedness at [the] highest levels possible
in order to confront and defuse any such measures by the enemies.”19
(September 13, 2006: Also See British Troops Mobilizing on the Iranian Border)
During the August war games, Iranian military commanders claimed, in a gesture
directed towards the United States, Britain, and Israel, “that no air
force of any power stationed in the Middle East is capable of confronting the
Iranian military’s ground forces.”20
This might seem like a psychological tactic to influence morale on both sides
and deter any possible aerial assaults against Iran. This statement cannot be
easily overruled if a comprehensive analysis is made and studied. In this regard,
one must look at Lebanon, where Hezbollah and the Lebanese Resistance were able
to withstand Israeli air raids and overcome the Israeli military on the ground.
The Lebanese Resistance is reported as being armed and trained by the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard. What would an Iranian defensive of a larger magnitude,
with state resources and air capabilities, be like?
The anticipation of a conflict are also coming from Iraq. Iraqi leaders have
been charging that the United States and Britain plan on attacking Iran from
Iraqi territory. Government representatives of Anglo-American occupied Iraq
have asked that Iraq not be turned into a theatre of war between the United
States and Iran. “We do not want Iraq to become an arena where other states
[i.e., the United States, Britain, and Iran] settle their accounts,”21
said the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih while visiting the Iranian
capital, Tehran. This message looked as if it was mainly directed at the United
States, as well as Iran.
Iran Always a Military Objective for the United States Washington:
“Anyone can go to Baghdad! Real Men go to Tehran!”
According to Michel Chossudovsky (The Next Phase of the Middle East War, September,
2006), the war on Iran is another phase of a “military roadmap”
which includes the invasions of Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) and the Anglo-American
sponsored Israeli siege of Lebanon (2006) as earlier stages.
In May, 2003 after the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq in March 2003, the motto
in Washington D.C. was
“Anyone can go to Baghdad! Real men go to Tehran!”
One should ask why "real" men would continue towards Tehran after
the invasion of Iraq. This slogan demonstrates that Iran was an objective or
a phase in a broader military operation. With that said, Washington would prefer
some form of internal "non-violent" regime change in Iran leading
to American control of the Iranian economy and oil resources rather than a high-risk
and high cost military confrontation. The shape and nature of this conflict,
however, is uncertain.
The possibility of conflict with Iran and a major aerial assault are widely
known.
The United States has been planning to attack Iran for years. Colonel Sam Gardiner
(Retired, U.S. Air Force) has stated that the campaign against Iran is one where
“the issue is not whether the military option would be used, but who approved
the start of operations already.”
The March to War with Iran and Syria
With time fleeting, the Iranian military is positioning itself in battle formations
under the pretext of nationwide war games and other pretexts. Iran has been
steadily strengthening its air defenses and air units in preparation for the
possibility of strikes. Iranian and Syrian coordination is also intensifying
with the passing of time.
An attack on Iran and Syria would be a combination of heavy air bombardment
by the U.S. Air Force, including the U.S. Army’s air units. It would also
include a ground offensive led by the U.S. Marines and Army from the American
bases surrounding both Iran and Syria. The U.S. Navy and Coast Guard would predominately
manage the theatre of war in the Persian Gulf, with a view to guaranteeing the
unimpeded flow of oil through the strategic Straits of Hormuz.
The Israeli military would deal with military operations in the Levant. Both
Israeli troops and Israeli public opinion are being prepared for the possibility
of another Middle Eastern conflict. In this context, Israel would face the possibility
of aerial assaults from Iran. Iran has threatened to retaliate if it is attacked,
using its ballistic missiles.
British and Australian forces in southern Iraq would deploy with the strategic
aim of occupying the Iranian province of Khuzestan and securing its oil. Khuzestan
is where most of Iran’s oil fields are located. Meanwhile a naval build-up
is developing in the Persian Gulf which also includes the U.S. Coast Guard and
the Canadian Navy.
The United States and its partners meanwhile are continuing to marshal and siphon
their forces into the Middle East and Afghanistan. Both the United States and
Britain have promised troop reductions in Iraq, but are actually increasing
their troop levels. It also seems that a muzzle is being placed on Lebanon to
stop any attacks on Israel by the presence of troops from member states of NATO.
Syria also seems to be expecting a possible aerial campaign. A vessel sailing
to Syria under the flag of Panama, the “Grigorio I,” has been reported
to have been stopped off the coast of Cyprus transporting 18 truck-mounted mobile
radar systems and three command vehicles for delivery to Syria. This equipment
appears to be part of an air defence system.22
In Iran, the Intelligence Minister has warned that “enemies are seeking
to create instability in Iran through different measures, including assassinations,
explosions and extensive insecurities” and that “his forces, in
cooperation and coordination with other governmental bodies, have defused enemies’
plots in different Iranian provinces, including Tehran.”23
Venezuela has also threatened to halt oil exports in the event of an Anglo-American
aggression against Iran and Syria. Venezuela has gone on to caution that it
will defend Iran “under threat of invasion from the United States.”
This was a warning given to the United States by Venezuela during the Conference
of the Non-Aligned Movement in Cuba.24
The United States has already started to target both Iran and Syria’s
financial bodies and institutions in an act of economic warfare. Syria has in
step with Iran taken “preventative steps” in early 2006 by switching
from using the U.S. dollar to using the Euro for all its transactions. The head
of the state-owned Syria Commercial Bank has said that such measures have been
taken to protect Syria from American sanctions (economic warfare).25
Actions have been taken against the large, state-owned Bank Saderat of Iran
by the United States.26 The Bank Saderat has been cut off from
the U.S. financial system and its network(s). This is part of a deliberate objective
to financially cut off Iran from the rest of the world. Three large Japanese
banks, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho Corporate Bank and Sumitomo
Mitsui Banking Corporation have followed in step and will terminate business
with Bank Saderat.27
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Notes
1 Seymour H. Hersh, Washing Lebanon: Washington’s Interest
in Israel’s War, The New Yorker, August 14 & 21, 2006
http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060821fa_fact
2 Iranian War Games: Exercises, Tests, and Drills or Preparation
and Mobilization for War?, Global Research (CRG), August 21, 2006
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=
DAR20060821&articleId=3027
3 IAEA: US report on Iran “Outrageous,” Aljazeera,
September 15, 2006
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/84145EE0-6DF6-467D-AB67-670A83EF307A.htm
4 Iranian War Games: Exercises, Tests, and Drills or Preparation
and Mobilization for War?, Global Research (CRG), August 21, 2006
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=
DAR20060821&articleId=3027
5 Iran 'successfully' tests new air defence system, People’s
Daily, September 5, 2006
http://english.people.com.cn/200609/05/eng20060905_299651.html
Iranian Missile Test; Xinhua News Agency, September 5, 2006
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-09/05/content_5050931.htm
6 Iran tests laser-guided bomb during war games, The Hindu,
September 5, 2006
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200609051820.htm
7 Iran completes military exercise by testing 2,000-pound
bomb, Pravada; September 7, 2006
http://english.pravda.ru/news/world/07-09-2006/84317-weapons-0
8 Iran tests first-ever 2,000-pound guided bomb: Minister;
IRNA, September 6, 2006
http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-22/0609065169142007.htm
9 Karimi, Nasser; Iran deploys locally-manufactured warplane,
Hindustan Times, September 6, 2006
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1787643,00050004.htm,
Originally published by the Associated Press
10 Enemy Targets Destroyed by Maverick Missiles, Fars News
Agency, September 6, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506140347,
Maverick missiles are American made or developed air-to-surface missiles which
are conventionally used to attack armoured units, warships, air defences, military
transport and logistics units, and military depots.
11 Iran to Manufacture a New Jet Fighter, Fars News Agency,
September 12, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506210548
12 Complicated Dogfight Tactics Exercised during 'Blow of
Zolfaqar' War Games, Fars News Agency, September 4, 2006
http://english.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8506130203
Iranian F14s Carry Hawk Missiles Successfully, Fars News Agency, September
4, 2006
http://english.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8506130205
13 Iran says ready to combat electronic warfare, Iranmania, Sunday,
March 05, 2006
14 Army Prepared to Force Back Trans-Regional Threats, Fars
News Agency, September 6, 2006
http://www.farsnews.com/English/newstext.php?nn=8506140520
Trans-regional powers mean non-Middle Eastern nations with substantial force
in the Middle East (the region being talked about).
15 Defense Minister: Any Foreign Aggression Responded by Force;
Fars News Agency; September 2, 2006
http://english.farsnews.net/newstext.php?nn=8506110568
16 Defence Minister: Any Military Aggression against Iran
Struck Back Heavily, Fars News Agency, September 4, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506130415
17 Mobilize Forces Prepare to Encounter Enemies, Fars New
Agency, September 9, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506180167
18 Basij Comander: Enemies Awe Shattered Once they Err, Fars
News Agency, September 10, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506190583
19 Commander Warns o IRGC’s Aggressive Strategy in
Case of Foreign Threats, Fars News Agency, September 13, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506220539
20 No Air Force Capable of Confronting Iranian Army, Fars
News Agency; August 19, 2006 http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8505280544
21 Iraq Not a Place for Others to Settle Accounts, Fars News
Agency, September 6, 2006
http://www.farsnews.com/English/newstext.php?nn=8506140551
22 Cyprus finds air-defence systems on Syria-bond ship, Reuters,
September , 2006
http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=13449090&src=rss/worldNews
23 Intelligence Minister: Enemies Plots Defused in Tehran,
Border Provinces, Fars News Agency, September 13, 2006
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8506220518
24 Chavez pledge support for Iran, British Broadcasting Corporation
(BBC), September 15, 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/5347978.stm
25 Syria switches to euro amid sanctions threat, Xinhua News
Agency, February 13-14, 2006
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-02/14/content_4177423.htm
26 Lawder, David; US Treasury say Iran pressure can be unilateral,
Reuters, September 12, 2006
27 Three big Japan banks decide not to deal with Iran's Bank
Saderat, Forbes, September 16, 2006
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/09/16/afx3021822.html
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